Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 30.091447 33.009301 36.308502 40.366779 45.299853 51.207725 58.992675
2025-10-05 27.126272 31.133915 36.071094 42.806110 52.127122 65.256686 86.744426
2025-10-12 24.475426 28.770029 34.313588 42.344990 54.410442 73.464308 110.738874
2025-10-19 22.865167 27.398221 33.478252 42.754187 57.772094 84.347259 148.225659
2025-10-26 21.904618 26.714475 33.401482 44.130623 62.897266 100.673863 220.915635
2025-11-02 20.806869 25.698087 32.677882 44.309499 65.940985 114.641718 325.012031
2025-11-09 19.467814 24.212176 31.081460 42.779018 65.336536 119.855970 418.976123
2025-11-16 18.306836 22.891601 29.605577 41.236377 64.336491 123.656760 540.275960
2025-11-23 17.820348 22.509111 29.523641 42.081606 68.525988 145.795406 1324.719435
2025-11-30 17.185896 21.858481 28.953032 41.953669 70.534355 163.176289 6161.218613
2025-12-07 16.536223 21.142351 28.215115 41.411180 71.431624 177.771446 NaN
2025-12-14 15.630325 19.992629 26.697160 39.224748 67.806038 169.829718 NaN
2025-12-21 14.947611 19.255070 25.977646 38.856689 69.719398 196.408220 NaN
2025-12-28 14.745293 19.254500 26.505152 41.108509 79.947183 307.950044 NaN
2026-01-04 14.144467 18.578641 25.802138 40.681222 82.264678 384.226948 NaN
2026-01-11 13.725065 18.159204 25.501020 41.062189 87.514207 566.964337 NaN
2026-01-18 13.466052 17.976126 25.595686 42.342897 96.977435 1247.930621 NaN
2026-01-25 13.085879 17.568229 25.239750 42.509167 102.444340 3364.815803 NaN
2026-02-01 12.545735 16.866560 24.285271 41.085327 100.324709 5038.700315 NaN
2026-02-08 12.043254 16.205623 23.367059 39.647408 97.655914 7203.066668 NaN
2026-02-15 11.836844 16.027948 23.343611 40.435605 106.151594 NaN NaN
2026-02-22 11.543573 15.688463 22.985434 40.316355 110.225764 NaN NaN
2026-03-01 11.229087 15.298696 22.504327 39.810485 112.006852 NaN NaN